Bitcoin Is Back Above Treasury Cost Basis — But the Biggest Buyers Remain Cautious

Bitcoin is back above its treasury cost basis, but the biggest buyers remain cautious. Glassnode estimates that tracked Bitcoin treasury companies hold their coins at an average cost of about $80.2K.

Price has closed above that level every day since 18 September. Yet buying has not followed.

Bitcoin Is Back Above Treasury Cost Basis — But the Biggest Buyers Remain Cautious — *Image Via Glassnode.*

What Did Glassnode Find?

Monthly purchases by these firms have stayed below 10% of the November 2024 peak since June. The group is in profit, so it no longer adds overhead supply.

Why Are Buyers Cautious?

Glassnode describes a flywheel. In profit, purchases lift price, price lifts their shares, and their shares fund more purchases.

Reports point to two brakes, which are pressure on share premiums to net asset value and MSCI index risk.

Hot US inflation adds to the caution. Past sales also leave a mark, as Saylor dropped a new Bitcoin hint after a controversial sale.

Supply sits above price too. Glassnode places asks and large liquidation clusters between about $85K and $87.5K.

Bitcoin Sits Near Break-Even

At 09:44 UTC on 22 October 2026, Bitcoin traded at $81,690.00. That is down 2.78%, or $2,334.67, on the weekly BTCUSD chart.

Price sits about 1.9% above the treasury cost basis. It also sits just above the US spot ETF cost basis, near $81.5K. The Parabolic SAR dots remain below price, which keeps the trend bullish.

The MACD line reads 2,422.20, above its signal at 524.09. The histogram reads 1,898.11, and its bars are shrinking.

Glassnode’s chart shows the same story on the buying side. Net treasury purchases appear as tiny bars next to the huge 2024 peak.

The Flywheel Needs a Spark

Profit has not been enough to restart buying. A firm hold above $80K could help, and so could better share premiums. Some buyers never stopped, and Saylor is still adding dots.

The next big test is whether the group buys more as price climbs. Treasury demand drove much of the last rally, and the market now waits to see it return.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available data, market observations, and the author’s interpretation at the time of writing. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, and past performance or current technical setups do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. TechGaged does not accept liability for any losses incurred based on the information presented.

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